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Ali, G M, Kosa, J, Bouferguene, A and Al-Hussein, M (2021) Competitive Assessment of Ice and Frozen Silt Mat for Crane Ground Support Using Finite-Element Analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Alsharqawi, M, Abu Dabous, S, Zayed, T and Hamdan, S (2021) Budget Optimization of Concrete Bridge Decks under Performance-Based Contract Settings. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Han, B and Leite, F (2021) Measuring the Impact of Immersive Virtual Reality on Construction Design Review Applications: Head-Mounted Display versus Desktop Monitor. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Koc, K and Pelin Gurgun, A (2021) Assessment of Readability Risks in Contracts Causing Conflicts in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Liang, Y, Ashuri, B and Li, M (2021) Forecasting the Construction Expenditure Cash Flow for Transportation Design-Build Projects with a Case-Based Reasoning Model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords:
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002054
- Abstract:
Accurately forecasting the construction expenditure cash flow of transportation projects is critical for state departments of transportation (state DOTs) to secure sufficient funding to cover their fiscal obligations throughout the project development timeline. However, there is no quantitative model to assist state DOTs in accurately forecasting expenditure cash flows for design-build projects. At the outset of awarding a typical design-build contract, the design has not been finalized to enable exact quantities for a detailed cost estimate. This issue represents a big difference between design-build and design-bid-build projects that makes estimating the project payouts more difficult for design-build projects. This research for the first time creates an expenditure cash-flow forecasting model for transportation design-build projects based on case-based reasoning and a genetic algorithm. The model utilizes information about project-specific characteristics and external market factors. The applicability of the proposed model is examined on a data set of 33 transportation design-build projects delivered by Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT) from April 2007 to January 2020. The results show great accuracy in forecasting expenditure cash flows of these projects. The major contribution of this study lies on the creation of a new forecasting model, which enables reasonably accurate prediction of expenditure cash flow of transportation design-build projects. This research identifies that even early at the procurement phase of a design-build project when exact quantities and detailed cost estimates have not been fully developed, the combination of conceptual project information and local construction market indicators offers the capability to predict the future expenditure cash flow of the project through establishing similarities between the project to be awarded and historical design-build projects. This research provides a novel approach to quantify the similarities that will be used as critical inputs into a case-based reasoning algorithm for predicting the expenditure cash flow of the project using expenditure records of most similar historical projects in the design-build data set. It is anticipated that transportation agencies can benefit from the forecasting model presented in this study by enhancing their processes of estimating their financial obligations on the onset of letting design-build contracts. The forecasting model will help transportation agencies to avoid underestimating and overestimating the capital needed to build a design-build project during the contract duration. Therefore, limited financial resources of transportation government agencies will be utilized more efficiently and effectively, and the likelihood of running into disputes for fund unavailability and cost overruns will be reduced.
Ma, G, Wu, M, Jia, J and Yang, W (2021) Two-Level Quality Decision Support System for Building Structural Damage Prediction and Maintenance Solution Recommendation in the Operation and Maintenance Phase. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Mohamed, M and Tran, D Q (2021) Risk-Based Inspection Model for Hot Mix Asphalt Pavement Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Pirzadeh, P and Lingard, H (2021) Working from Home during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Health and Well-Being of Project-Based Construction Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Sharafi, A, Sadegh Amalnick, M and Allah Taleizadeh, A (2021) Outcome of Financial Conflicts in the Operation Phase of Public–Private Partnership Contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Wang, X, Ye, K and Arditi, D (2021) Embodied Cost of Collusive Bidding: Evidence from China’s Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Ward, M, Poleacovschi, C, Faust, K and Svec, J (2021) Modeling Public Support for Utility Expansions in Displacement Situations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Xue, J, Shen, G Q, Li, Y, Han, S and Chu, X (2021) Dynamic Analysis on Public Concerns in Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge: Integrated Topic and Sentiment Modeling Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Zhang, Q, Chen, Z, Li, J and Liu, S (2021) Pressure-Cast-In-Situ Pile with Spray-Expanded Frustum: Construction Equipment and Process. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).
Zhang, X, Le, Y, Liu, Y and Liu, M (2021) Fostering Ambidextrous Innovation in Infrastructure Projects: Differentiation and Integration Tactics of Cross-Functional Teams. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(06).